The Business Plan envisages a high EBITDA increase with EBITDA reaching €1.8 billion in 2030 with an average annual growth rate of 6%, boosted by the positive contribution of all business sectors.

The greatest support for growth is provided by the regulated and semi-regulated businesses with a growing contribution over the plan period of 70% to 80%.

Positive EBITDA growth is also reflected in Net Income, expected to exceed 400 million euros by 2030, with an average annual growth rate of 7%.

Higher growth expectations in the short term with +7% for EBITDA and +9% for Net Income and confirmation of the 2026 targets of the previous plan.

The growth drivers behind the €600m increase in EBITDA over the 2023-2030 period are as follows:

• Organic growth +550m€, as an effect of the investment plan that includes 5 billion euros in development projects especially in regulated businesses and the commissioning of new renewable generation and waste treatment, recovery and disposal assets;
• Inorganic growth +95m€, as an effect of the acquisition of EGEA, Sienambiente and the territorial expansion of waste collection;
• Synergies and efficiencies +130m€, as an effect of the efficiency-boosting activities already initiated and referring to the rationalization of activities, reduction of external costs and other projects punctually identified and involving all BUs;
• Asset rotation -40m€, related to the decommissioning of Turbigo, the only thermoelectric generation plant not functional for district heating (planned after 2027);
• Scenario and regulation -30m€, as an effect of a less positive scenario in the first years of the plan 2024-2026 and an improvement of the same in the medium term and a positive regulation already effective from 2024;
• Power BU scenario normalization -100m€, as an effect of higher electricity prices captured in 2023 and the ceasing marginality resulting from the 110% Superbonus freeze.

Iren's commitment to a balanced capital structure aimed at maintaining current Fitch and S&P agency rating levels is confirmed. In spite of the significant investment plan, the financial profile is expected to be balanced in terms of the NFP/EBITDA ratio, which is expected to decline and with a value not exceeding 3.3x over the plan horizon and always well below the maximum threshold of 3.5x, compatible with current rating parameters. This dynamic ensures that Iren has adequate financial flexibility to seize any further opportunities over the plan horizon. To reinforce the commitment to financial sustainability and to maintaining the debt ratio, we also point out the identification of 600 m€ of flexible investments in the first three years.

Iren's financial profile remains solid and characterized by a low level of risk throughout the duration of the plan, with the cost of debt increasing due to the refinancings expected in the coming years as well as to the goal of increasing the average duration of debt. The average cost of debt will be below 2.4% in the 2024/2025 biennium and around 2.6% in the second part of the plan. This will be achieved through a high proportion of fixed-rate debt, continued optimization and prudence in the provision of financial resources, and a steadily increasing proportion of sustainable financing.

The maturities that the company will have to meet in the plan arc roughly evenly spread over the years.