The Group's significant investment plan is reflected in its main economic and financial objectives. EBITDA is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 4%, reaching €1.6 billion in 2030. This result is made possible by the high visibility of revenues from regulated and semi-regulated activities, which will generate approximately 75% of the Group's EBITDA in 2030. Net profit is expected to grow by 7%, with an expected value of approximately €400 million in 2030. These increases do not fully reflect the investments planned in the plan due to the subsequent entry into operation of the three WTE plants expected in 2032/2033. Taking these plants into account, growth would be 5% in terms of EBITDA and 8% in terms of net profit.

The growth drivers behind the €400 million increase in EBITDA in the period 2024-2030 are as follows:

• Organic growth of €270 million, related to the development of the asset base. This figure is consistent with the €2.6 billion development investment plan and corresponds to an implied annual contribution to EBITDA of more than 10%. Excluding from the calculation the development investments relating to the three new waste-to-energy plants that will come into operation and generate margins only from 2032 and 2033, the implicit contribution of investments to EBITDA would rise to over 12%;
• Inorganic growth of €60 million, as a result of the consolidation of EGEA;
• Synergies of €120 million, thanks to efficiency and integration measures. However, part of these benefits will be offset by an increase in personnel costs of approximately €35 million, due to contractual adjustments currently being finalised and higher than current inflation rates;
• Retail customer margins -45M€: the business plan assumes a reduction in margins in this segment, both due to the disappearance of the extraordinary margins recorded in 2024 in the gas sales chain and due to increased competition in the market. The expected growth in EBITDA will also have a positive impact on the Group's net profit, which will increase from €268 million in 2024 to an estimated €400 million in 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 7%. The increase in net profit is also related to the acquisition, at the beginning of the year, of the minority stake in Iren Acqua, which contributes approximately €20 million to the Group's net profit. 
• Energy scenario -40M€: a negative impact is expected in the medium term, due to the particularly positive results that characterised 2024 in terms of both hydroelectric production volumes and renewable electricity prices, which also benefited from the early execution of hedging. The energy scenario in the plan, in a particularly uncertain context, is considered prudent, forecasting a PUN (National Single Price) in 2030 of just under €100/MWh and an average clean spark spread, captured by thermoelectric plants, of around €3/MWh.

In conclusion, it should be noted that some important plants will still be under construction in 2030. Therefore, the above-described growth in EBITDA and Group net profit in 2030 does not yet fully reflect the potential of the investment plan. In particular, the three new WTE plants will only become fully operational in the period 2032-2033, generating a further increase in EBITDA of at least €100 million. This contribution to margins will bring the CAGR of EBITDA to 5% and that of net profit to 8%, further boosting the Group's growth.

Iren confirms its commitment to a balanced capital structure aimed at maintaining the current ratings assigned by the rating agencies (S&P and Fitch). The net financial position is expected to increase by €800 million compared to 2024 as a result of investments related to the Group's development plan and the distribution of dividends. 

Despite the significant investment plan, the financial profile is expected to be balanced in terms of the IFN/EBITDA ratio, which is expected to decline over the plan horizon, guaranteeing the Group ample financial flexibility with respect to the maximum threshold of 3.5x, established in line with current ratings and supported by the increase in the incidence of so-called ‘regulated’ activities, which are expected to reach 75% at the end of the plan. Financial strength is also reinforced by two factors:

1. Cash inflows from asset disposals or financial partnerships have not been included among the sources of financing; therefore, the investment plan is fully covered by operating cash flow.

2. Operating cash flow will cover almost 50% of dividend commitments.

Iren confirms its commitment to a balanced capital structure aimed at maintaining the current ratings assigned by Fitch and S&P. The net financial debt to EBITDA ratio is expected to decrease from 3.2x in 2024 to 3.0x in 2030, a path that gradually increases the financial flexibility that the Group can use to finalise additional organic and inorganic growth options not currently included in the plan.

The maximum IFN/EBITDA ratio threshold set at 3.5x is compatible with current rating metrics, reinforced by a predominantly regulated business portfolio.

The net financial position is expected to increase from €4.1 billion to €4.9 billion in 2030, but compared to previous plans, financial strength is reinforced by two elements:

1. Cash inflows from asset disposals or financial partnerships have not been included among the sources of financing, therefore the investment plan is fully covered by operating cash flow.
2. Operating cash flow will also cover almost 50% of dividend commitments, whereas in previous plans this percentage was much lower.

Iren's financial profile remains solid and characterised by a low level of risk throughout the duration of the plan, with debt costs rising as a result of refinancing planned for the coming years and the objective of increasing the average duration of debt. The average cost of debt will be less than 2.4% in the two-year period 2024/2025 and around 2.6% for the remainder of the plan. This result will be achieved thanks to a high proportion of fixed-rate debt, continuous optimisation and prudence in the procurement of financial resources, and a steadily growing share of sustainable financing.

The maturities that the company will have to meet over the course of the plan are spread fairly evenly across the years.