The new industrial plan provides for a total amount of investments of 12.7 billion euros with a doubling of average annual investments compared to the period 2015-2020, equally distributed over the plan's horizon.
More than 70% of cumulative investments are destined for regulated or semi-regulated sectors, in order to upgrade, modernise and digitalise network services, with particular focus on purification plants, to extend district heating and to improve the quality of the urban waste collection service with the aim of increasing the recovery of materials in own plants.
61%, equal to approximately 7.7 billion euros, is made up of development investments, intended to promote the Group's growth in size, mainly related to the development of renewables, selection and treatment plants, the extension of district heating networks and smart solution projects. Unlike previous business plans, inorganic investments were included, amounting to 14%, or 1.8 billion euros, and intended for the consolidation of investee companies, participation in gas tenders and completion of the ATOs in which Iren is incumbent. Finally, the remaining 25%, amounting to approximately 3.2 billion euros, is earmarked for maintenance investments.
From the point of view of sustainability, roughly 8.7 billion euros, about 80% (~70% for the European Taxonomy) of the total investments, are directed to projects that contribute to the achievement of the commitments made in the five focus areas identified, in particular to support the resilience of cities and decarbonisation projects.
FOCUS ON BUSINESS UNITS
The Business Plan envisages a substantial doubling of EBITDA to reach €1.8 billion in 2030. The significant growth in EBITDA is driven by the positive contribution of all business sectors.
The greatest support for growth is provided by regulated and semi-regulated activities, in particular the integrated water service and the expansion of district heating, as well as the increase in waste treatment and recovery capacity, the development of renewables and the extension of energy efficiency services and energy customer base.
The investment plan foresees more than 4.9 billion euros aimed at increasing the efficiency and quality of services with a strong growth in RAB reaching 4.8 billion euros in 2030. 50% of investments in networks are directed towards the integrated water service to strengthen and increase the resilience of the network, develop depuration plants, inorganic growth through the consolidation of minority interests and participation in water tenders in synergistic ATOs. A total of 18% of investments in the networks are allocated to gas distribution, in particular aimed at maintaining the current infrastructure, replacing old pipes with the latest generation ones and ready to receive hydrogen mixtures, and development in strategic areas through participation in tenders. A total of 17% of grid investments are earmarked for the electricity distribution in order to allow the evolution of the networks by adapting them to support higher capacities due to the electrification of consumption, continuously pursuing operational efficiency, necessary to provide the best service at affordable levels to citizens. Finally, 16% is earmarked for district heating networks for the extension of volumes and the development of thermal storage capacity with a focus on technological innovation to promote decarbonisation.
The planned investments and synergies allow for an EBITDA of 870 million euros in 2030 (+ 370 million euros compared to 2020).
The circular economy is confirmed as the guide of the environmental sector, which makes provision for an investment plan of over 2.5 billion euros. 66% of which is intended for the development of supply chains related to urban collection, including the expansion of treatment and recycling capacity also through partnerships for incoming flows and the development of 2 waste-to-energy and waste-to-chemical plants to fill the local infrastructure gap in the management of undifferentiated waste. The remaining 34% is dedicated to the collection activities for territorial development by expanding the pool of users served, by participating in tenders, and an improvement in the quality of service through the adoption of automated processes, digitalisation and electrification of fleets.
These investments enable EBITDA of 430 million euros to be achieved in 2030 (+260 million euros compared to 2020).
This plan is characterised by the development of renewable sources, solar and wind, in accordance with the objective of decarbonisation of the generation plants aimed at achieving the ESG Science Based Target certification, the development of storage necessary to capture the various opportunities and the completion of the initiatives to increase the flexibility of cogeneration plants. Plans are also in place for divesting thermoelectric generating assets that are not functional for district heating.
In support of these projects, a total of 2.5 billion euros is planned for investments aimed at supporting the achievement of an end-of-plan EBITDA of 260 million euros (+160 million euros compared to 2020).
Iren's commitment is aimed at increasing customer value, thanks to higher expected electricity consumption and to the further boost given by IrenPlus services, and at reducing the churn rate following the improvement of service quality, a rebalancing of the mix of acquisition channels in favour of pull channels and the development of energy communities. In 2030, the objective is to reach 2.6 million customers, with the main focus on electricity customers, also thanks to the complete liberalisation of the market subject to additional safeguards.
In support of this commitment, provision is made for 650 million euros of investments which will enable the achievement of an EBITDA of 180 million euros (up by 30 million euros compared to 2020).
Finally, 1.6 billion euros of investments are earmarked for the development of smart solution projects, including services related to the building energy efficiency, supported by a significant boost provided by tax incentives, which will make it possible to accelerate the acquisition of new public and private customers nationwide, thanks in part to the integration of the recently acquired Bosh Energy and the development of a comprehensive portfolio of services for local communities and businesses aimed at addressing their growing need for sustainability. Investments in e-mobility are aimed at obtaining a significant position in the sale of products and services related to private recharging and the installation of public and semi-public recharging stations, also supporting local administrations in creating the necessary infrastructure for the electrification of local public transport. In addition, Iren will offer its expertise to communities for the management of complex projects such as the renovation of public buildings, hydrogeological instability and specific urban initiatives.
This approach will result in EBITDA of 60 million euros (up 50 million euros from 2020).